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NEED TO RESEARCH NOW UNKNOWN OLD BOND & STOCK CERTIFICATES, TRY PLEASE READ: MARKET RULES AND MARKET PSYCHOLOGY HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - E-MAIL COSMAD I WILL TRY AND GET BACK WITH YOU AS SOON AS I CAN. I DO FUTURES TRADING ON THE S&P 500 & WORK WITH RESCUED PETS, AND SOMETIMES, CAN'T ANSWER RIGHT AWAY. FOR 2002, I WAS IN BEARISH HEAVEN 'CAUSE MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE, AND FOR 2003, I'VE BEEN IN AND OUT, LONG, THEN SHORT, THEN LONG, NOW SHORT AGAIN. I'VE HAD TO CHANGE POSITIONS MORE THIS YEAR; THEREFORE MORE TIME SPENT ON THE MARKETS & LESS POSTINGS HERE. I HAVE NOT SEEN TRENDS THAT SEEM TO WANT TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW MONTHS. IT'S TRADING RANGES. YOU REALLY NEED TO KNOW THE STOCKS YOU TRADE, & TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RANGES THAT THEY TRADE IN. AN EXAMPLE IS IBM. LAST FALL, IT HAD A LOW OF AROUND $54. I WOULD HAVE BOUGHT AT OR JUST BELOW $60, AND PUT AN AUTOMATIC SELL IN AT $89. IT SEEMS TO HAVE MAJOR RESISTANCE AT $90. WHY IS NATURAL GAS IN A CRISIS & GREENSPAN TALKING ABOUT IT INSTEAD OF THE ENERGY SECRETARY? PLEASE READ QUESTIONS ANSWERED. GENERAL MARKET DATA: Strong up Mondays, usually means down week. Strong down Mondays, usually mean up week. Markets rally in mornings, sell off in afternoons = bearishness Markets sell off in mornings, rally in afternoons = bullishness MARKET DAILY TIMES TO WATCH (with general trends): 10:30 a.m. (usually 10:15 to 10:35) 1st high or low of the day 12:30 p.m. (From 12 to 1:00 p.m., markets trend to reverse what they were doing at 10:30 a.m.) 2:00 p.m. (From 1:30 to 3:00 p.m., market trading heavier/trend for the day may change) 3:00 p.m. (From 3:00 to 3:20 p.m., one direction, which may or may not be the same direction that was established between 1:30 to 3:00 p.m.) 3:20 p.m. (From 3:20 to 3:40 p.m., change direction) 3:40 p.m. (From 3:40 to 4:00 p.m., tends to go back to what it was doing at 3:00-3:20 p.m.) |
MY S& P WORK MAY BE HELPFUL TO YOU AS I SEE MARKET DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN ADVANCE. I TEND TO BE EARLY AS MY WORK STARTS TURNING BEFORE THE MARKET DOES. PRESENTLY SHORT. SHORTED S&P 500 FUTURES 6/17/2003 AT 1010 CLOSED SHORT 7/01/2003 AT 965 & WENT LONG CLOSED LONG & RESHORTED S&P 500 FUTURES 07/09/2003 AT 1009. SHORTED MORE 9/03/2003 AT 1029. THE S&P FUTURES HAVE RESISTANCE AT 1030-1035. To confirm this mkt is negative as I think, futures need to go below 1000-1010. I am negative on this market for the next few months, & I believe the dollar will weaken, and gold will hit around $400 this year. (Being short the S&P 500 is basically being short the whole market for those who do not understand what I am doing.) I do not believe a bottom has been made & my charts still are pointing to a Dow below 6,000. I thought this would have already happened so the whole economy could go forward. I am short again because there are too many Bulls. Markets do not reward the masses. Most analysis have been WRONG the last 3 years. Do your own research. This is your life savings, not theirs. I basically only trade the S&P 500, GE & IBM. These 2 stocks are critical to my market work. I like buying/selling the whole market through the S&P 500 futures contracts. Please read: Market Psychology & Market Rules |
ALWAYS BUY ON FEAR - SELL ON GREED LONG = BULLISH = BUY SHORT = BEARISH = SELL I AM PRESENTLY ONLY TRADING S&P 500 FUTURES. (I AM BUYING OR SELLING THE WHOLE MARKET IN POSITION TRADING, NOT DAY TRADING) MY WORK MAY SEE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MARKETS WHICH MAY HELP YOU. CONTINUE TO E-MAIL ME WITH YOUR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE MARKETS. I WILL GET BACK WITH YOU. THANKS, COSMAD |
MARKET TRENDS BEARISH SIGNALS: CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) hit just below 20, meaning everyone is bullish & the volatility of the market is very low. This is a SELL signal to me 'cause if everyone is bullish, markets may be getting ready to sell off. (Markets never tend to reward the masses.) Also, we have high Gov't deficit spending which may continue several more years; years of Middle East/World conflicts (the war may be over but the battles haven't all been won meaning we could be there for years, perhaps a decade +); high unemployment & increasing outsourcing of jobs overseas (outsourcing USA jobs overseas are estimated to increase in years to come); scoring consumer debt with debt now in real estate due to refinancing; natural gas shortages; crude oil over $20 Barrel (I'd be happy now to see crude at $25 a barrel, as oil above $20, in my opinion, is worldwide financial doom); unreliable accounting, starting with pension funds (which hasn't really being talked about); & increasing strength in metals which translate to a weak dollar. (Some weakness in the dollar is good, but we may get more than we bargained for as gold is pointing to around $400/once.) I do not see growth from companies - I see more layoffs, more outsourcing jobs overseas, & decreased employee benefits inorder to increase bottom lines. If this continues, & more & more families have one or more members out of work, this could lead to bankruptcy, foreclosurers, lower spending, & consumers buying halted . I believe this will eventually lead to a real estate bubble breaking & years of Bear Market trading ranges. My views on the market are not popular since everyone wants & believes markets will rise & the lows have been made. I, too, would love to see the economy improve, but I am not seeing it. If you know how, you can make money all the time, no matter if the market is going up, or trending down. The bulk of my investments are in mutual funds, & in these funds, I can either be long or short. The fund is the Ultra OTC Bull Fund which can be traded long, as well as short. This fund corresponds to twice (2 X or 200%) of the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Percentage moves up or down are usually more than on the Nasdaq composite since the composite index is approx. 400 points above the Nasdaq 100. MAJOR BEAR MARKET SIGNAL: Markets should go back and retest the 1994 levels - Dow below 6,000 - Nasdaq below 800, & S&P 500 below 500 as the Bull market bubble (1994-3/2000) never went back there to retest these support level. We use to hear "How high can it go up?" and now I am waiting to start hearing "How low can it go down?" Markets tend to prey on extremes, & we have already seen one side of the extreme to the up side. Now we need to see the extreme to the sell, down side which to me has not happened. I sincerely believe until we see blood in the streets, this market will not bottom. This statement is based on over a hundred years of past market data starting with 1885. I haven't updated Market Psychology as yet. Look at the date this was created. Yes, the market did make lows in 4th Qtr of 2002, & 1st Qtr of 2003, but the price wasn't right. I didn't get what I expected - a Dow below 6000. I was looking for people (the public) to finally throw in the towel, & then we could go forward. By not getting the price yet, this leads me to believe the recovery, economy will take a long time. (More like 1929 to 1952 vs 1974 to 1982.) USE STOPS ON YOUR STOCKS. STOPS WILL BE TRIGGERED AS MARKETS FALL, FORCING YOU OUT OF THE MARKET. ( Rarely have I ever found any individual investors who can sell at market tops/highs, or who can buy at market bottoms.) BOTH NASDAQ & THE DOW ARE IN A BEAR MARKET. You can have bear market rallies of 20+%, & get caught up in trading ranges that last years & years. This is not a market where you can buy & hold. It is a trading market & the last one was 1974 to 1982. Right now I do not know, historically, if we are repeating the early 1930's or are in 1974. Either way, the markets should take years & years & years to recover. The energy crisis of the 70's - early 80's was crude oil, & at this time, it appears to be natural gas. |
CURRENT TRENDS: The markets have been giving me sell signals since middle June, 2003, and since that time, including today, 08/04/2003, the markets are going no where. The S&P would have to break out above 1015, for me to get a buy signal. (The S&P rallied 09/03/2003 to 1029.50 & I shorted more at 1029 as I still believe this market is topping.) The Dow has major resistance at 9,570-9600. The bears may still hold control over this market til November, 2003. IBM, GE, & MSFT are weak, and have been weak. I do not believe we can have a bull market this year without these three key stocks. There has been more insider selling than insider buying for May, June, July & August. It was recently noted that for every dollar insiders bought, other insider sellers sold $37. You should always watch this, & add this to your research work. Since 1945, the 3rd quarter has always been the weakest. For the last 15 years, (1987-2002), August has been a down month. My work indicates (2003), this should be number 16 in a row. OK, so this August wasn't as negative as prior ones. Historically, the worst month for the markets is September, followed by October. The best months for the markets have historically been April, November & December. 09/03/2003: For the life of me I can't understand why this market is still up, & perhas in the immediate future, either hours or days from now, this market should turn very negative & I will again regain your confidence as I did not see the strength the markets showed these past 2 weeks. Historically, mkts rally the day before/after a holiday but there was not the strength of a normal holiday rally on 9/02/2003. I am still short. Shorted more at 1029 today. I did not like the close if you're bullish, 'cause the Dow closed below 9570, which along with the action yesterday and today on theSMH, the strength in the metals (weakness in the dollar), weakness in lumber, were all giving me sell signals. For tomorrow, 09/04/2003, I think the mkts will try rallying first, and sell off late in the day. I do not want to see the s&p futures above 1035. Friday, I am looking for weakness 1st thing, as I believe the market will not like the unemployment results announced. Next week, 09/09/2003, appears to be a big day, and I think to the down side. To confirm that this market is as negative as I think, futures need to break below 1000-1010. This mkt has been warning since June that it's in sell mode, so we could experience a fast, hard sell....soon. Week of option expiration, my work is pointing to more strength in the metals, bonds & oils & this translates to a weak stk mkt. Still own NEM (from 4/2001) and gold ($255) from July 5, 2001. Looking for strength in the metals til 4th qtr 2003. Gold is pointing towards $400. (When this was written was over a year away, now around the corner.) In prior bear markets, the best of the best s&p 500 stocks, oils, energy and metals come back after the Dow lows are made. The Dow usually reacts like a rubber band and rallies strongly for a year, maybe two, before settling into a trading range which could last for years & years to eventually making a lower low. (7/2003: IS THIS WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW?) After the 1929 crash, the markets made a low in 1932, yet utilities did not make their low til 1935, & by the time the early 1950's approached, we still hadn't gone any where. Market trading ranges can last a very long time, meaning a market you trade, not a market to buy & hold. The last time the markets were down 3 years in a row was 1939-1941. We could be ready to make market history by being down 4 years in a row. Too early to say, but I believe the highs for 2003 have already been made, unless we have a strong November and/or December, 2003. The year prior to an Presidential election, has historically been down. FROM MY 2002 NOTES: I had closed my S&P short at 800, in late July, 2002, went long, and by mid-3rd week in August, 2002, said: The Bears ARE tired of knocking at our door, and appear to be ready to start HUNTING THE HUNTERS from middle/late August, 2002, to 4th QTR, 2002, 1st QTR, 2003. Remember, this happened, but I never got my price; therefore, someday, my price may show up, & when that happens, it will be ugly. (From my trading experience, the S&P 500 futures issues a sell/buy signal first. Then IBM and GE issues their sell/buy signals. IBM always rallies STRONGLY before markets sell off. |
MARKET TRENDS BEARISH SIGNALS: CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) hit just below 20, meaning everyone is bullish & the volatility of the market is very low. This is a SELL signal to me 'cause if everyone is bullish, markets may be getting ready to sell off. (Markets never tend to reward the masses.) Also, we have high Gov't deficit spending which may continue several more years; years of Middle East/World conflicts (the war may be over but the battles haven't all been won meaning we could be there for years, perhaps a decade +); high unemployment & increasing outsourcing of jobs overseas (outsourcing USA jobs overseas are estimated to increase in years to come); scoring consumer debt with debt now in real estate due to refinancing; natural gas shortages; crude oil over $20 Barrel (I'd be happy now to see crude at $25 a barrel, as oil above $20, in my opinion, is worldwide financial doom); unreliable accounting, starting with pension funds (which hasn't really being talked about); & increasing strength in metals which translate to a weak dollar. (Some weakness in the dollar is good, but we may get more than we bargained for as gold is pointing to around $400/once.) I do not see growth from companies - I see more layoffs, more outsourcing jobs overseas, & decreased employee benefits inorder to increase bottom lines. If this continues, & more & more families have one or more members out of work, this could lead to bankruptcy, foreclosurers, lower spending, & consumers buying halted . I believe this will eventually lead to a real estate bubble breaking & years of Bear Market trading ranges. My views on the market are not popular since everyone wants & believes markets will rise & the lows have been made. I, too, would love to see the economy improve, but I am not seeing it. If you know how, you can make money all the time, no matter if the market is going up, or trending down. The bulk of my investments are in mutual funds, & in these funds, I can either be long or short. The fund is the Ultra OTC Bull Fund which can be traded long, as well as short. This fund corresponds to twice (2 X or 200%) of the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Percentage moves up or down are usually more than on the Nasdaq composite since the composite index is approx. 400 points above the Nasdaq 100. MAJOR BEAR MARKET SIGNAL: Markets should go back and retest the 1994 levels - Dow below 6,000 - Nasdaq below 800, & S&P 500 below 500 as the Bull market bubble (1994-3/2000) never went back there to retest these support level. We use to hear "How high can it go up?" and now I am waiting to start hearing "How low can it go down?" Markets tend to prey on extremes, & we have already seen one side of the extreme to the up side. Now we need to see the extreme to the sell, down side which to me has not happened. I sincerely believe until we see blood in the streets, this market will not bottom. This statement is based on over a hundred years of past market data starting with 1885. I haven't updated Market Psychology as yet. Look at the date this was created. Yes, the market did make lows in 4th Qtr of 2002, & 1st Qtr of 2003, but the price wasn't right. I didn't get what I expected - a Dow below 6000. I was looking for people (the public) to finally throw in the towel, & then we could go forward. By not getting the price yet, this leads me to believe the recovery, economy will take a long time. (More like 1929 to 1952 vs 1974 to 1982.) USE STOPS ON YOUR STOCKS. STOPS WILL BE TRIGGERED AS MARKETS FALL, FORCING YOU OUT OF THE MARKET. ( Rarely have I ever found any individual investors who can sell at market tops/highs, or who can buy at market bottoms.) BOTH NASDAQ & THE DOW ARE IN A BEAR MARKET. You can have bear market rallies of 20+%, & get caught up in trading ranges that last years & years. This is not a market where you can buy & hold. It is a trading market & the last one was 1974 to 1982. Right now I do not know, historically, if we are repeating the early 1930's or are in 1974. Either way, the markets should take years & years & years to recover. The energy crisis of the 70's - early 80's was crude oil, & at this time, it appears to be natural gas. |
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ALWAYS BUY ON FEAR - SELL ON GREED LONG = BULLISH = BUY SHORT = BEARISH = SELL I AM PRESENTLY ONLY TRADING S&P 500 FUTURES. (I AM BUYING OR SELLING THE WHOLE MARKET IN POSITION TRADING, NOT DAY TRADING) MY WORK MAY SEE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MARKETS WHICH MAY HELP YOU. CONTINUE TO E-MAIL ME WITH YOUR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE MARKETS. I WILL GET BACK WITH YOU. THANKS, COSMAD |
COSMAD'S CORNER |
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MY S& P WORK MAY BE HELPFUL TO YOU AS I SEE MARKET DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN ADVANCE. I TEND TO BE EARLY AS MY WORK STARTS TURNING BEFORE THE MARKET DOES. PRESENTLY SHORT. SHORTED S&P 500 FUTURES 6/17/2003 AT 1010 CLOSED SHORT 7/01/2003 AT 965 & WENT LONG CLOSED LONG & RESHORTED S&P 500 FUTURES 07/09/2003 AT 1009. SHORTED MORE 9/03/2003 AT 1029. THE S&P FUTURES HAVE RESISTANCE AT 1030-1035. To confirm this mkt is negative as I think, futures need to go below 1000-1010. I am negative on this market for the next few months, & I believe the dollar will weaken, and gold will hit around $400 this year. (Being short the S&P 500 is basically being short the whole market for those who do not understand what I am doing.) I do not believe a bottom has been made & my charts still are pointing to a Dow below 6,000. I thought this would have already happened so the whole economy could go forward. I am short again because there are too many Bulls. Markets do not reward the masses. Most analysis have been WRONG the last 3 years. Do your own research. This is your life savings, not theirs. I basically only trade the S&P 500, GE & IBM. These 2 stocks are critical to my market work. I like buying/selling the whole market through the S&P 500 futures contracts. Please read: Market Psychology & Market Rules |
NEED TO RESEARCH NOW UNKNOWN OLD BOND & STOCK CERTIFICATES, TRY PLEASE READ: MARKET RULES AND MARKET PSYCHOLOGY HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - E-MAIL COSMAD I WILL TRY AND GET BACK WITH YOU AS SOON AS I CAN. I DO FUTURES TRADING ON THE S&P 500 & WORK WITH RESCUED PETS, AND SOMETIMES, CAN'T ANSWER RIGHT AWAY. FOR 2002, I WAS IN BEARISH HEAVEN 'CAUSE MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE, AND FOR 2003, I'VE BEEN IN AND OUT, LONG, THEN SHORT, THEN LONG, NOW SHORT AGAIN. I'VE HAD TO CHANGE POSITIONS MORE THIS YEAR; THEREFORE MORE TIME SPENT ON THE MARKETS & LESS POSTINGS HERE. I HAVE NOT SEEN TRENDS THAT SEEM TO WANT TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW MONTHS. IT'S TRADING RANGES. YOU REALLY NEED TO KNOW THE STOCKS YOU TRADE, & TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RANGES THAT THEY TRADE IN. AN EXAMPLE IS IBM. LAST FALL, IT HAD A LOW OF AROUND $54. I WOULD HAVE BOUGHT AT OR JUST BELOW $60, AND PUT AN AUTOMATIC SELL IN AT $89. IT SEEMS TO HAVE MAJOR RESISTANCE AT $90. WHY IS NATURAL GAS IN A CRISIS & GREENSPAN TALKING ABOUT IT INSTEAD OF THE ENERGY SECRETARY? PLEASE READ QUESTIONS ANSWERED. GENERAL MARKET DATA: Strong up Mondays, usually means down week. Strong down Mondays, usually mean up week. Markets rally in mornings, sell off in afternoons = bearishness Markets sell off in mornings, rally in afternoons = bullishness MARKET DAILY TIMES TO WATCH (with general trends): 10:30 a.m. (usually 10:15 to 10:35) 1st high or low of the day 12:30 p.m. (From 12 to 1:00 p.m., markets trend to reverse what they were doing at 10:30 a.m.) 2:00 p.m. (From 1:30 to 3:00 p.m., market trading heavier/trend for the day may change) 3:00 p.m. (From 3:00 to 3:20 p.m., one direction, which may or may not be the same direction that was established between 1:30 to 3:00 p.m.) 3:20 p.m. (From 3:20 to 3:40 p.m., change direction) 3:40 p.m. (From 3:40 to 4:00 p.m., tends to go back to what it was doing at 3:00-3:20 p.m.) |
I'M CURRENTLY IN SELL MODE |
Have been short since late 8/2000 on S&P 500 at 1529, GE at $60 and early Sept. 2000 IBM at $134.87. Shorted more 6/2001: GE $52.50 and IBM $124. GE below $30, & IBM below $90 are again in sell mode as of 6/2003. |
Visit Our ~ JOURNEYS~HOLIDAYS~FANTASIES~ ||| HOME ||| Brought to you by: ||| www.marketrader.com ||| www.stockmarketwiz.com ||| divisions of www.stars2stocks.com |
Partner With Us IF You Can. For those of you that I have helped with the markets & who have made donations, again thanks. |
